Trigger: Full ceasefire announced before Sunday open
Expected CL: โ
Expected NQ: โ
Weights sum: 100%
Adjusted projection ยท based on your scenario weights
Scenario-weighted expected value vs AI projection
CL
โ
โ vs Fri close
โ vs AI projection
NQ
โ
โ vs Fri close
โ vs AI projection
Adjust scenario sliders above to see how your assumptions change the expected open price.
How the numbers are built
CL ยท WTI Crude Apr26
Anchor: $99.31 Fri close (not the $95.73 2:30pm settle โ the actual close matters for gap pricing). Supply shock: Hormuz handles ~21mb/d (20% of global seaborne). ~3.5mb/d effectively offline. Libya 2011 = 1.6mb/d offline โ +20% over 2 wks. Pro-rated for Hormuz = +25-40% fully priced, but markets don't fully price tail risks immediately. Weekend gap premium: Futures markets closed. New information (mines, IRGC threats) can only be priced at Sunday 6pm ET open. Gap risk is asymmetric โ easier to spike up than down on war news. IG CFD signal: Weekend oil ~102. Treat as noise โ thin volume, wide spreads. Mentioned for completeness but not weighted in base case. Base case +8.2%: Weighted average of 4 scenarios. Upside skew from Kharg threat (67% PM). Conservative vs. pure supply shock math.
NQ ยท Nasdaq-100 Mar26
Anchor: 24,350 Fri close. Third consecutive down week, VIX already at 27.36 โ war premium partially priced. Historical comps: Iraq invasion Mar 2003 = NQ -3% day 1. 9/11 = -6.5% (direct US attack). Gulf War Jan 1991 = -4.5% on ground war start. REVISED ASSUMPTION: Previous -6.4% (22,800) was overcounting. That number simultaneously priced war premium + recession + Fed paralysis + earnings risk. Cleaner base case is -4.7% (23,200) for status quo. 22,800 is the bear scenario, not the base. Macro overlay: Core PCE 3.1% + payrolls -92K already negative. War adds supply-side inflation (oil โ input costs) while crushing demand. Fed trapped โ can't cut into inflation, can't hike into slowdown. NQ hates this regime. Correlation: CL and NQ moving opposite = normal war premium. If they start moving same direction = regime change signal (either peace rally or demand destruction).
Key events ยท impact log
TimeEventCL ฮNQ ฮ
Sat 15:30Trump warship request โ China/France/UK/Japan/Korea all silent. Diplomatic isolation confirmed.+0.5%-0.8%
Sat 15:30Iran FM Araghchi: "will strike facilities of American companies in region" if oil infra targeted.+0.8%-1.1%
Sat 10:32IRGC formally designates US UAE bases (incl. Al Dhafra) as legitimate targets.+1.2%-1.8%
Sat 10:32Fujairah drone fire โ main Hormuz bypass hub hit, oil loading suspended.+2.1%-2.3%
Sat 09:30Iran selectively allowing Indian/Turkish vessels through Hormuz โ partial reopening signal.-0.9%+0.6%
Ceasefire announced ยท Polymarket says ~1% by Sunday
~$83
-$16.31 ยท -16.4%
~26,000
+1,650 ยท +6.8%
1%
Prediction markets ยท live
Prediction markets - live
Ceasefire by Mar 31
~13%
bid 13 / ask 14ยข
Polymarket ยท $182K vol
Kharg oil terminal hit Mar 31
~67%
CL tail risk: $115+
Polymarket
US Recession 2026
~38%
up from 22% pre-war
Kalshi
Fed holds Mar 18
97%
no cut priced in
CME FedWatch
Iranian regime falls Mar 31
~20%
indirect CL bearish signal
Polymarket
PM impact on projection
Awaiting first projection...
AI-synthesized updates
Breaking
High importance
De-escalation
Context
Saturday March 14, 2026 - Day 15 (afternoon)
~3pm ETESCALATIONโ LATEST
Trump calls on China, France, UK, Japan, South Korea to send warships to Hormuz
Trump posted on Truth Social that nations affected by Hormuz disruptions "will be sending War Shipsโฆ to keep the Strait open and safe." Named China, France, Japan, South Korea and UK. No confirmation from any of those countries. Iran's FM Araghchi immediately responded: "if Iran's facilities are targeted, our forces will strike facilities belonging to American companies in the region." UAE intercepted 9 ballistic missiles and 33 drones Saturday. Kuwait air base struck. Former IRGC commander: Hormuz will not be reopened.
Market impact โCL โฒ - no deal, threats escalatingNQ โผ - US company assets threatened
Saturday March 14, 2026 - Morning
~8am ETESCALATIONโ KEY
IRGC formally designates US bases in UAE as legitimate targets
IRGC officially informed UAE that US military installations - including Al Dhafra Air Base - are now legitimate targets. Urged UAE residents to evacuate ports, docks, and US military areas. Qatar issued evacuations of central Doha including Musheireb district (Google, American Express offices). Ceasefire by March 31 drops to 13/14ยข on Polymarket bid/ask.
Market impact โCL โฒ - Gulf infra riskNQ โผ - major escalation
Drone debris hit Fujairah bunkering hub, fire broke out, some oil loading operations suspended. UAE energy minister later visited and confirmed energy system stable. Iran also allowing Indian and Turkish vessels through Hormuz selectively - closure is political not physical.
US bombs Kharg Island (90% of Iran crude exports) - threatens oil infra next
US CENTCOM struck 90+ military targets on Kharg Island. Trump: "obliterated every MILITARY target" but explicitly held off on oil infrastructure - threatened to hit it if Hormuz stays blocked. Iranian state media confirmed oil facilities NOT damaged. This is the single most important event driving the weekend projection - it sets up an oil infra strike as a live tail risk with ~67% odds on Polymarket by March 31.
Market impact โCL โฒ MAJOR - Kharg threat liveNQ โผ MAJOROil infra strike = CL $115+ instantly
CL surged from 2:30pm settle of $95.73 to close at $99.31 as Marines deployment + Hormuz mines confirmed hit the tape. NQ 4th straight down day. VIX 27.36. Core PCE 3.1%, payrolls -92K, UMich 55.5. CME FedWatch 97% hold March 18. These are the Friday close anchors all projections measure against.
Anchors โCL close: $99.31NQ close: ~24,350
War origin - February 28, 2026
NightWAR STARTโ ORIGIN
US & Israel launch "Operation Epic Fury" - Supreme Leader Khamenei assassinated
Coordinated US/Israeli strikes killed Ali Khamenei and ~40 senior officials. Son Mojtaba elected new Supreme Leader March 8. CL was $66 pre-war - now up 47%. 500+ ballistic missiles and 2,000+ drones fired by Iran. Hormuz effectively closed. IEA activated record 400M barrel reserve release. US gas +23% to $3.68/gallon. War enters day 15 with no ceasefire in sight - Polymarket pricing it at 13ยข by March 31.