Iran War Β· Market Intelligence
Futures Open Tracker
CL (WTI crude) & NQ (Nasdaq-100) Β· Sunday 6:00 PM ET open
AUTO-UPDATING
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CL Apr26 Β· Friday Close
$99.31β–²+3.11%
Range $92.04-$99.32 Β· settle $95.73 Β· close $99.31
NQ Mar26 Β· Friday Close
24,350β–Ό-0.93%
Support 24,100 / 23,830 Β· VIX 27.36 Β· 3rd down week
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Current projection
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⚑ Regime change signal
Projection drift chart
● projection Β· dashed = Friday close ($99.31 / 24,350) Β· auto-updates every 5 min
Scenario adjuster Β· what-if override
Expected CL: β€”
Expected NQ: β€”
Weights sum: 100%
Drag sliders to override AI scenario weights. Monte Carlo updates live. Reset to AI values
πŸ”΄ Escalation Β· CL $118 / NQ 21,500 25%
Trigger: Kharg oil infra struck Β· Iran hits Saudi/UAE
🟑 Status quo · CL $107 / NQ 23,200 51%
Trigger: War grinds on, Hormuz stays closed
🟒 Ceasefire signal · CL $94 / NQ 24,800 23%
Trigger: Iran expands Hormuz access Β· deal framework
⚑ Full peace · CL $82 / NQ 26,200 1%
Trigger: Full ceasefire announced before Sunday open
Credibility filter · recent decisions see full history →
10 most recent decisions β€” source, claim, weight applied. Full history in Logs tab.
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Key events · impact log see full log →
Time (ET)Headline · live from each AI refresh
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How the numbers are built
CL Β· WTI Crude Apr26
Anchor: $99.31 Fri close (not the $95.73 2:30pm settle β€” the actual close matters for gap pricing).
Supply shock: Hormuz handles ~21mb/d (20% of global seaborne). ~3.5mb/d effectively offline. Libya 2011 = 1.6mb/d offline β†’ +20% over 2 wks. Pro-rated for Hormuz = +25-40% fully priced, but markets don't fully price tail risks immediately.
Weekend gap premium: Futures markets closed. New information (mines, IRGC threats) can only be priced at Sunday 6pm ET open. Gap risk is asymmetric β€” easier to spike up than down on war news.
IG CFD signal: Weekend oil ~102. Treat as noise β€” thin volume, wide spreads. Mentioned for completeness but not weighted in base case.
Base case +8.2%: Weighted average of 4 scenarios. Upside skew from Kharg threat (67% PM). Conservative vs. pure supply shock math.
NQ Β· Nasdaq-100 Mar26
Anchor: 24,350 Fri close. Third consecutive down week, VIX already at 27.36 β€” war premium partially priced.
Historical comps: Iraq invasion Mar 2003 = NQ -3% day 1. 9/11 = -6.5% (direct US attack). Gulf War Jan 1991 = -4.5% on ground war start.
REVISED ASSUMPTION: Previous -6.4% (22,800) was overcounting. That number simultaneously priced war premium + recession + Fed paralysis + earnings risk. Cleaner base case is -4.7% (23,200) for status quo. 22,800 is the bear scenario, not the base.
Macro overlay: Core PCE 3.1% + payrolls -92K already negative. War adds supply-side inflation (oil β†’ input costs) while crushing demand. Fed trapped β€” can't cut into inflation, can't hike into slowdown. NQ hates this regime.
Correlation: CL and NQ moving opposite = normal war premium. If they start moving same direction = regime change signal (either peace rally or demand destruction).
Scenarios vs. Friday close
ScenarioTriggerCL opensNQ opensProb
πŸ”΄ EscalationTrump bombs Kharg oil terminals Β· Iran retaliates on Saudi/UAE infra~$118
+$18.69 Β· +18.8%
~21,500
-2,850 Β· -11.7%
25%
🟑 Status quoWar grinds on, Hormuz stays closed, no major new shock~$107
+$7.69 Β· +7.7%
~22,800
-1,550 Β· -6.4%
51%
🟒 Ceasefire signalIran expands Hormuz access · Trump signals deal framework~$95
-$4.31 Β· -4.3%
~24,800
+450 Β· +1.8%
23%
⚑ Full peaceCeasefire announced · Polymarket says ~1% by Sunday~$83
-$16.31 Β· -16.4%
~26,000
+1,650 Β· +6.8%
1%
Strait of Hormuz Β· live vessel traffic
SoH status Β· current intel
Anchored
150+
vs ~12 pre-war
Transits/day
~8
vs ~35 normal
Disrupted
~3.5
mb/d of 21mb/d
Selective
IN/TR/CN
IndiaΒ·TurkeyΒ·China
Hormuz partially closed Day 16. Iran allowing selective passage for non-US-aligned nations. 150+ tankers anchored. Jask port struck overnight.
Global supply chain impact Β· who gets hurt
πŸ”΄ Most exposed to closure
Japan ~85% ME oil via SoH
~4.8mb/d imports at risk. No alternative source. Economy most exposed of any G7.
South Korea ~75% ME oil via SoH
Heavy refining/petrochemical sector. SPR covers ~90 days only.
India ~60% ME oil via SoH
Partially insulated β€” Iran allowing Indian vessels through. Strategic ambiguity paying off.
China ~55% ME oil via SoH
~10mb/d imports. Russia offsetting some (~2mb/d). Selective access granted. Strategic leverage over both sides.
🟒 Least exposed / benefiting
United States net exporter
Shale production insulates from import risk. High domestic oil prices actually benefit producers. Gas prices +23% is the pain point.
Russia major beneficiary
Rerouting Iranian customers to Russian oil at premium prices. US sanctions relief further helps. War is economically favorable for Russia.
Saudi Arabia higher prices
Exports via Red Sea / Suez, not SoH. Higher oil prices benefit fiscally. Under drone attack risk but insulated from direct supply disruption.
Europe moderate exposure
~15% ME via SoH. More exposed via Qatar LNG for gas. Norwegian/US LNG partially offsets. Hurt but not crippled.
Data: IEA, EIA, Lloyd's. SoH handles ~21mb/d seaborne + ~3.8 tcf/yr LNG (Qatar). Closure also affects UAE pipeline bypass (Habshan-Fujairah) β€” partially disrupted by drone strike Mar 14.
Global oil flow anomalies Β· real-time distortions
Route / SourceStatusΞ” vs norm
Hormuz Strait Β· tanker transit
~8 transits/day vs 35 normal Β· 150+ anchored outside
DISRUPTED -77%
UAE Habshan-Fujairah pipeline bypass
1.5mb/d capacity Β· Fujairah hub hit Mar 14 Β· partially operational
PARTIAL -40%
Qatar LNG exports (Ras Laffan)
~77mt/yr normally Β· drone attack reduced operations
REDUCED -15%
Russia β†’ Asia reroute (pipeline + tanker)
Filling void left by Iran/Gulf disruption Β· premium pricing
ELEVATED +18%
IEA / US SPR emergency releases
IEA activated 400M barrel release Β· US also releasing
ACTIVE +0.4mb/d
Kharg Island crude exports (Iran)
Military struck Fri Β· oil infra intact but operations disrupted
REDUCED -40%
US domestic shale (WTI Permian)
High prices incentivizing production increase Β· takes months to manifest
RAMPING +0.2mb/d
Broader oil & gas Β· non-Iran news
Updating with next projection refresh...
Broader oil & gas Β· non-Iran news
Updating with next projection refresh...
Live news Β· Reuters Β· AP Β· OilPrice Β· EIA
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Breaking
High importance
De-escalation
Context
Saturday March 14, 2026 - Day 15 (afternoon)
~3pm ETESCALATION● LATEST
Trump calls on China, France, UK, Japan, South Korea to send warships to Hormuz
Trump posted on Truth Social that nations affected by Hormuz disruptions "will be sending War Ships… to keep the Strait open and safe." Named China, France, Japan, South Korea and UK. No confirmation from any of those countries. Iran's FM Araghchi immediately responded: "if Iran's facilities are targeted, our forces will strike facilities belonging to American companies in the region." UAE intercepted 9 ballistic missiles and 33 drones Saturday. Kuwait air base struck. Former IRGC commander: Hormuz will not be reopened.
Market impact β†’CL β–² - no deal, threats escalatingNQ β–Ό - US company assets threatened
Saturday March 14, 2026 - Morning
~8am ETESCALATION● KEY
IRGC formally designates US bases in UAE as legitimate targets
IRGC officially informed UAE that US military installations - including Al Dhafra Air Base - are now legitimate targets. Urged UAE residents to evacuate ports, docks, and US military areas. Qatar issued evacuations of central Doha including Musheireb district (Google, American Express offices). Ceasefire by March 31 drops to 13/14Β’ on Polymarket bid/ask.
Market impact β†’CL β–² - Gulf infra riskNQ β–Ό - major escalation
~6am ETOIL INFRA
Fujairah (main Hormuz bypass hub) drone fire - oil loading suspended
Drone debris hit Fujairah bunkering hub, fire broke out, some oil loading operations suspended. UAE energy minister later visited and confirmed energy system stable. Iran also allowing Indian and Turkish vessels through Hormuz selectively - closure is political not physical.
Market impact β†’CL β–² - bypass route threatenedPartial offset: UAE stable, selective openings
Friday March 13, 2026 - After hours
~9:45pm ETOIL INFRA● KEY EVENT
US bombs Kharg Island (90% of Iran crude exports) - threatens oil infra next
US CENTCOM struck 90+ military targets on Kharg Island. Trump: "obliterated every MILITARY target" but explicitly held off on oil infrastructure - threatened to hit it if Hormuz stays blocked. Iranian state media confirmed oil facilities NOT damaged. This is the single most important event driving the weekend projection - it sets up an oil infra strike as a live tail risk with ~67% odds on Polymarket by March 31.
Market impact β†’CL β–² MAJOR - Kharg threat liveNQ β–Ό MAJOROil infra strike = CL $115+ instantly
4:00pm ETMARKET CLOSE
CL $99.31 (+3.11%) Β· NQ ~24,350 (-0.93%) Β· 3rd straight down week
CL surged from 2:30pm settle of $95.73 to close at $99.31 as Marines deployment + Hormuz mines confirmed hit the tape. NQ 4th straight down day. VIX 27.36. Core PCE 3.1%, payrolls -92K, UMich 55.5. CME FedWatch 97% hold March 18. These are the Friday close anchors all projections measure against.
Anchors β†’CL close: $99.31NQ close: ~24,350
War origin - February 28, 2026
NightWAR START● ORIGIN
US & Israel launch "Operation Epic Fury" - Supreme Leader Khamenei assassinated
Coordinated US/Israeli strikes killed Ali Khamenei and ~40 senior officials. Son Mojtaba elected new Supreme Leader March 8. CL was $66 pre-war - now up 47%. 500+ ballistic missiles and 2,000+ drones fired by Iran. Hormuz effectively closed. IEA activated record 400M barrel reserve release. US gas +23% to $3.68/gallon. War enters day 15 with no ceasefire in sight - Polymarket pricing it at 13Β’ by March 31.
War scorecard β†’CL: $66 β†’ $99.31 (+47%)NQ: ~26,300 β†’ 24,350 (-7.4%)
Actual Open Recorder Β· calibration
Actual CL open
Actual NQ open
Projection history Β· all snapshots
Snapshots appear here as the AI updates...
Prediction markets Β· high-liquidity only
Volume thresholds: <$50K = noise Β· $50-250K = directional Β· $250K-$1M = meaningful Β· $1M+ = consensus. Only markets above $50K shown.
US-Iran Ceasefire by Mar 31
~12% bid 12 / ask 13Β’
VOL: ~$182K βœ“ meaningful Polymarket
↑ CL on drop Β· ↓ CL on spike
Kharg Oil Terminal Hit by Mar 31
~70% CL tail risk $115+
VOL: ~$95K βœ“ directional Polymarket
Key upside tail: if hits, CL +$10-15 instantly
US Recession 2026
~41% up from 22% pre-war
VOL: $1M+ βœ“βœ“ consensus Kalshi
Demand destruction signal Β· NQ bearish if spikes
Fed Holds Mar 18 (no cut)
97% no cut priced in
VOL: $500M+ βœ“βœ“βœ“ ultra-liquid CME FedWatch
Fed trapped Β· war inflation vs growth risk
Iranian Regime Falls by Mar 31
~21% rising on SL wounded
VOL: ~$75K βœ“ directional Polymarket
Binary: regime collapse = CL -$20+ Β· NQ +8%
PM composite signal Β· projection impact
Awaiting first projection...
Updated each refresh cycle
Key events Β· full running log
Every headline from every AI refresh. Most recent first.
Time (ET)Event headline
Loads on first refresh...
Credibility filter Β· full history
Every source credibility decision. πŸ”΄ ignored  πŸŸ‘ partial  πŸŸ’ full weight.
Mar 14
WH CLAIM
“Iran missile -90%, drone -95%”
Contradicted by physical hypersonic launch at Al-Dhafra the very next morning. Launch is the data point. Claim is noise.
βœ•
IGNORED
Mar 14
TRUMP
“Iran totally defeated, wants a deal”
Iran FM simultaneously stated war continues, Hormuz stays closed. Classic pressure tactic. No back-channel confirmation.
βœ•
IGNORED
Mar 14
WH CLAIM
“6,000+ targets, 65+ vessels sunk”
No independent satellite confirmation at scale. Rough order-of-magnitude only.
~
~30% WEIGHT
Mar 14
IRAN FM
“Will strike US company assets if oil infra targeted”
Adversary stating own intentions = high credibility. Hard constraint on US escalation calculus.
βœ“
FULL WEIGHT
Mar 15
VERIFIED
“10 hypersonic missiles at Al-Dhafra”
IRGC + UAE air defense independently confirmed. Physical event. Directly refutes WH capability claims.
βœ“
FULL WEIGHT
AI analyst Β· ask about scenarios, news impact, market reactions
Powered by Gemini Β· context-aware of current projections, scenarios, and market state
⚠ CL Friday close $99.31 confirmed. NQ ~24,350 est. Auto-refreshes every 5 minutes via Gemini AI. Polymarket ceasefire Mar 31: 13/14’ bid/ask. Kharg oil terminal strike ~67%. Watch: Trump Truth Social · IRGC UAE follow-through · Hormuz convoy developments. Not financial advice.